NBA Finals Preview

Much to my personal dismay, the NBA Finals will be another installment of Lakers vs Celtics. The rematch of the 1976 NBA Finals will have to wait, as the Suns’ all-time record in the Western Conference Finals has fallen to 2-7 (0-3 under Nash, 1-5 in my lifetime, 1-3 that I can remember). This time around, Kobe exacted his revenge for the “me-first” implosion that LA experienced in the desert during Game 7 of the 2006 opening round (completing a 3-1 comeback by the Suns). In the process, he let everyone on Planet Orange (and planet Earth) know who is really “king” of the NBA. Given that his ego can’t even be pulled by a Mack truck, I am sure that revenge for a small first round loss to Phoenix is significantly lower on his priority list than avenging the 2008 Finals defeat at the hands of these very Celtics (with the exception of a couple of role players, these teams both return the same nuclei of starters). I have picked a couple (of many) possible factors that may or may not lead to a repeat of 2008 (Boston in 6 if you don’t remember).

Home Court Advantage

Remember that the Finals are structured 2-3-2, which puts a lot of pressure on the home team to start strong and hold serve. A lot of emphasis will be placed in the coming days on the following statement: The Lakers have not lost a playoff game this year at the Staples Center and are 28-3 in their last 31 home playoff games. In contrast, the Celtics have only lost three two road games in this playoffs (throw out Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals - the officiating was so unfathomably lopsided that Tim Donaghy sat at home and smiled as his name spewed forth from the mouth of every Boston fan). On the other side of the coin, the Celtics have performed sufficiently but not remarkably well at home and the Lakers have let a couple of games slip away on the road this post season. I could play a numbers game and compare regular season records, but I deem this to be only moderately relevant considering that the Celtics were admittedly coasting and they play in a significantly easier conference. Ultimately, why not just rely on empirical evidence? Of late, neither team has been visibly phased by opposing crowds and both squads have gotten quality wins in increasingly hostile environments. Each of these teams has the experience, composure, and talent to win when it counts, regardless of the location.

Advantage: Push

Defense

A lot is made of these two teams defensively and rightfully so. The buzzword “length” is used to describe the Lakers’ frontcourt so much that it’s almost a cop out way to describe this team. The Lakers do a great job protecting the paint, preventing penetration by guards and getting their hands (which are attached to their long arms) into passing lanes. This wreaks havoc on guards who make their living by getting into the painted area (like Nash & Rondo). By limiting access to the lane, opponents are forced to opt for longer shots, which are in turn easier for LA to contest since they aren’t as far out of position in the first place. There is a reason why teams shoot a league low three point percentage against LA and it is independent of how many ways Ron Artest can bleach the word “defense” into his hair.

The Celtics defense can be summed up in one word, physical. The C’s style is about as close as you can get in today’s NBA to the late 80’s and mid 90’s, when flagrant fouls were rarely, if ever called and “no easy buckets” meant using everything short of a Tanya Harding style crow-bar beat down to crack players hard enough that they would think twice before entering the paint again. They bump every player coming off of a screen, shove anyone cutting off of the ball, and seize all opportunities to let the other team know that nothing will be easy or free. It’s a style that frustrates opponents and their fans alike. Seriously, watch how much Pau cries when Perkins and Garnett start elbowing him in the chest. Part of that is not his fault, it’s his European ancestry. But the other part is that he, like many in the league, prefers to avoid unnecessary contact. The Celtics embrace it.

Contrary to popular belief, the Lakers have the tools to play a bit more physical. Artest is one of the most physical small forwards in the NBA. Pau and Odom can man up if they choose, but it’s not their preferred style. It’s not how they’re wired. The Celtics want to play as physical as David Stern and Stu Jackson will let them because that’s how they dictate tempo. The Celtics, like the Spurs of the early 2000’s and the bruisers of the 80’s, are built to win 80-76 games – to grind it out. The only thing Lamar wants to grind is Khloe Kardashian.

Advantage: Celtics

The Superstars

After Kobe had his knee drained prior to Game 1 of the WCF, he scored 36+ points in 4 of the 6 games. But for LA fans, his point total isn’t the most encouraging part of his play this post season. Old Kobe was preoccupied with “getting his.” New Kobe understands that he can have it both ways. He looks to get his team involved early and then takes over the game when necessary. His biggest flaw right now is his teammates: when they don’t show up, LA doesn’t win. In Game 4 of the WCF, Kobe dropped in 38 points on 15-22 shooting (6-9 from 3) with 10 assists…in a loss. The Suns forced him to get others involved and nobody answered the bell. Inconsistency is the main concern for this team. The other part of the Lakers trio is the Bynum and Gasol duo. One problem: Bynum is more likely to be spotted on the side of a milk carton than contributing in a big game. Gasol is a bona fide all-star who, as Doug Collins will tell you once a quarter, is the best all-around center in the NBA.

The Celtics’ now rely on Rajon Rondo to control their offense and he hasn’t let them down yet. By default, this makes him their most important superstar although Pierce usually handles the bulk of the scoring burden and Garnett takes care of the post duties. And then there is my personal favorite player on this team, Ray Allen, who reminds everyone at least once a series that he is one of the best pure shooters the league has seen. While these players do a great job sharing the load, it is unclear to me who is charged to take over in crunch time. Who do they defer to? Sure at one point in their careers each of these players could win games by themselves, but these days the responsibility falls to whoever is willing to accept it. Maybe this works to their advantage by making it harder to game plan against them. Or maybe I am undervaluing the fact that they have numerous capable players. So far this strategy has worked, but it remains to be seen what will happen when they play a truly contested series.

At certain points in time I would have taken any of the Celtics’ superstars on my team. I, like most people, see those names and associate them with the player from 2005. When it comes down to it, this battle is closer than you may think. But I’ll take the insanely competitive, consistent superstar that controls every facet of a game and can get points against any defense when it matters most. In the 2008 Finals that player was Paul Pierce, in the 2010 Finals it’s Kobe Byrant.

Advantage: Lakers

The Verdict

I could probably go on for a much longer in regards to the styles of these two teams. It’s unclear to me at this time whether or not it would be useful, or if anyone still reading would care for that matter. So, given that this is the first installment and I want to keep whatever good will that I have intact, I will wrap it up with this.

Basketball is a team game – it always has been. Playoff basketball is about consistency and the ability of a team to assert their will and dictate the way that the game is played. The Celtics have handled every challenge to date and are certainly capable of winning this series. But, in glimpses the Lakers have looked unbeatable. Kobe has elevated his game to a level that is rarely seen in professional sports and there is every reason to believe that the rest of the Lakers will answer the challenge he has issued. If I wasn’t busy agonizing over the Suns’ helplessness, I would have embraced Kobe’s Game 6 as one of the better “no effing way we are losing this game” performances of recent past. Seriously, there are few players ever who could hit the kinds of contested shots that he does routinely in crunch time. One of them wore number 23 and another wore 33 and neither of them are steeping onto the court on Thursday.

It is well documented that Kobe has a serial obsession with how he is perceived both on and off of the court. He is acutely aware of how a second title as the alpha dog will impact his legacy. He is eager to cast a shadow on his selfish past and prove that he is a changed player – a motivator, a facilitator, and an all-time great scorer. As much as I hate his cockiness and that new piranha face that he makes after a big bucket, I have a feeling that the Lakers will emerge as the best team under is *cough* leadership. The new Kobe, the one who understands the concept of team, will hoist a fifth Larry Obrien trophy and Kobe haters such as myself, will have nothing left to do but hang our heads in defeat.

Lakers in 6